FDA – A Bump in the Genomic Road to the Future?

This week I received two detailed reports from 23andMe (23andMe.com), the genomic organization I wrote about in an earlier blog. They sent a LOT of information, and I am still working through. The first report was about strengths and weaknesses in my health plus information about how my body might respond to various medications. The second report related more to ancestry and genealogy.
Three days later there was an email announcement, apparently sent to all 23andMe customers. 23andMe, in response to a letter from the Food and Drug Administration;
If you are a customer whose kit was purchased before November 22, 2013, your 23andMe experience will not change. You will be able to access both ancestry and health-related information as you always have.

 23andMe has complied with the FDA's directive and stopped offering new consumers access to health-related genetic results while the company moves forward with the agency's regulatory review processes. Be sure to refer to our 23andMe blog for updates.

I beat the deadline and received the complete reports and will (I understand) continue to receive updates. Apparently customers of 23andMe who ordered after November 22 will receive the genetic results relating to health and medications, but without the helpful interpretations provided by 23andMe.

 My first reaction was hostile to the FDA. I had received what I believe is valuable information and the government doesn’t want me to know what’s going on in my own genome! Then I saw Mathew Herper’s article in Forbes- “23andStupid: Is 23andMe Self Destructing?” Herper pointed out that the FDA letter stated that 23andMe had stopped communication with the FDA in May!

Here’s part of the FDA letter, with link:
"Thus, months after you submitted your 510(k)s and more than 5 years after you began marketing, you still had not completed some of the studies and had not even started other studies necessary to support a marketing submission for the PGS. It is now eleven months later, and you have yet to provide FDA with any new information about these tests. You have not worked with us toward de novo classification, did not provide the additional information we requested necessary to complete review of your 510(k)s, and FDA has not received any communication from 23andMe since May. Instead, we have become aware that you have initiated new marketing campaigns, including television commercials that, together with an increasing list of indications, show that you plan to expand the PGS’s uses and consumer base without obtaining marketing authorization from FDA." (http://www.fda.gov/ICECI/EnforcementActions/WarningLetters/2013/ucm37629...)

But enough of legal and political maneuvering. What about the future of personal genomics? Frankly, I was impressed with the reports I received. Impressed enough that I planned to order 23andMe kits for our children and grandchildren.

To be specific, the 23andMe “drug response” report showed an “Increased” response to Warfarin. Coincidentally, my cardiologist had recently started me on a standard dose of blood thinner, then quickly reduced the dosage. He may have had similar information.
The Drug Response report was the report I was most interested in when I ordered the 23andMe kit, as I have family members who are over-responsive to multiple medications and feel this is an area that should be of greater concern in the medical community, as “standard” dosages can be way too much, or too little. The only problem I have had (so far) has been with beta blockers. Reading the report and the postings from other people revealed that a lot of people have trouble with standard dosages of beta blockers.

In the “Health Risks” report, my first three risks were Gout, Atrial Fibrillation, and Prostate Cancer. No problems with gout and my doctor been monitoring PSA and other tests for years, so no surprises there. But I had no clue, no education, no preparation for Atrial Fibrillation, so my education came from a team of doctors at the foot of my bed after a long night in the emergency room. A few years advance notice from a report like this would have been very valuable.

When I ordered the 23andMe kit, I didn’t expect many surprises. I’m 78, so I’ve already experienced most of the conditions that a genomic report would reveal, but I wanted to learn what genome testing can do for individuals. As I said earlier, I am impressed by the information I received. This is helpful information on many fronts, and we are still very early in the game—only 10 years since Dr. Collins report to Congress. Still a lot to learn about the human genome that will be added to future reports. Imagine what new information will be available over the next ten years!

But what about the FDA’s stated concern that individuals will “self-manage” their medications. Might knowledge and awareness of medical risks also help patients to better communicate with their physicians about their responses to medication? Do some physicians hesitate to vary from “normal” dosages because of legal risks? It would seem that an informed patient is the best solution to many potential problems.

And what about the problem between the FDA and 23andMe? Is this politics, bureaucracy, lobbying or something else at work? Or is this a legal challenge to the FDA? How will this play out? Lots of possible scenarios for this new industry. Some clues may come from a new book by Peter W. Huber, The Cure in the Code (reviewed in the December 4 Wall Street Journal by Ronald Bailey).
I have to believe that there is far more going on in this interaction between this young business and federal regulators than is apparent yet. We’ll have to wait for the next chapter!

Ten Years after his forecast...

In May of 2003, Dr. Gary Collins testified before a House Subcommittee on Health and included his vision for the future of genomic medicine, as follows.

“While it always is somewhat risky to predict the future, I want to leave you with my view of where I believe genomic medicine is headed. In the next ten years, I expect that predictive genetic tests will exist for many common conditions in which interventions can alleviate inherited risk, so that each of us can learn of our individual risks for future illness and practice more effective health maintenance and disease prevention. By the year 2020, gene-based designer drugs are likely to be available for conditions like diabetes, Alzheimer's disease, hypertension, and many other disorders. Cancer treatment will precisely target the molecular fingerprints of particular tumors, genetic information will be used routinely to give patients more appropriate drug therapy, and the diagnosis and treatment of mental illness will be transformed.”

As a new graduate in Futures Studies from UHCL, I was excited by Dr. Collins vision, and could hardly wait to see the benefits of the race to sequence the human genome. I had family members that I felt would benefit in several ways, but most specifically in knowing how their bodies would react to different medications and dosages.

One thing that Dr. Collins did not mention in his vision was that DNA testing would become very important in criminal cases in a very few years, leading to convictions for some and freedom for others, including freedom for many who had been erroneously convicted, sometimes for very long periods.

Well. It’s been ten years now, and coincidence or not, last week I received a letter from Anne Wojcicki, CEO of 23andMe, inviting me to order a DNA test kit for $99. I ordered two test kits the same day.

Just ten years after the completion of the genome sequencing project and Dr. Collins presentation to the House subcommittee, I ordered an analysis of my personal DNA for about $100.00. Right on schedule!

Will the information be useful or valuable? I’m in my late seventies, so have already learned a lot about my health and medications. For example, standard dosages of beta-blockers seem to affect my system differently than they do other people. I’ve suspected that about other medications, but have never been certain. I’m hoping the information from 23andMe will tell me something about how my body will react to different medications.

But the truth is, I’m curious. What will a DNA report actually be able to tell me? Will it offer information that will be valuable to our children or grandchildren? Will it confirm information I already know about? What is the potential for everyone?

I’ll write another blog on this subject after we get our test results, but in the meantime, Fast Company has a feature article titled “The Most Daring CEO in America” about Wojcicki and 23andMe. My issue arrived the day after I placed our order.

If you have comments or suggestions for the follow up blog, please post them below and I will have them in mind when I write that blog.

 

Leadership and Long-Term Perspective

Leadership and Long-term Perspective

 

Type the word “leadership” into a Google search and you will get over 400 million returns. Overwhelming! This article is about just one component of leadership— long-term perspective.

Most people will agree that the primary responsibility of a leader is to lead, and in order to lead, you must know where you and your organization are going. Not just to the next quarter, but over the next ten years or more.

 The term “long- term perspective” implies a viewpoint and an understanding of the future that you expect to achieve, either personally or for your organization. People who think about where their organization is headed and specifically what it will achieve over the next ten years or more are often called “visionaries” because they have a vision or image in their mind of where they are going and what they must achieve to get there. Not everyone in a leadership position has that.

When I was a child, we played a game called “Follow the Leader.”  One child would be selected to be the leader, and the rest of the group would follow. Many “leaders” didn’t know what to do, and just ran around in circles until the group chose another leader. Some leaders simply did what the previous leader had done. Then, occasionally, a new leader would take all of us on an interesting journey around the playground or field or park— wherever we happened to be. Those occasional leaders, young as they were, knew where they were going. They had a destination.

Futurists and strategic planners talk a lot about “vision” or “visioning.” Sometimes they speak in almost mystical terms, but there is nothing mysterious about visioning. A vision is your (or your organization’s) image of the future, usually at least ten years away. If “image” is no more helpful to you than “vision,” think of both as a destination in the future. The place you want your organization or your life to be ten years from now.

When I talk to audiences or workshops about vision, I offer an analogy, suggesting that if you were to plan a family vacation for next summer, the most important decision would be your destination. Where will you go? Until you settle on a destination, you really cannot make plans for your vacation. Once you decide on the destination, then you can decide how you will travel (car, ship, airplane, etc), where you will stay, and what you will do. But you really can’t plan a vacation until you decide on a destination.

The same is true of business and strategic planning. You cannot make an effective strategic plan until you have a vision —a destination in the future. Which brings me back to my main point: Good leadership requires the ability to know where you are going, to have a destination in the future —a vision. Others agree.

Kouzes and Posner, authors of The Leadership Challenge (2002) conducted considerable research on leadership, stating that “More than 70% of our most recent respondents selected the ability to look ahead as one of their most sought-after leadership traits.”(italics are mine). In the same paragraph, the authors add “…leaders must know where they‘re going if they expect others to willingly join them on the journey.” (p 28).

But this raises the question, “How does an individual acquire a long term perspective?”

I suggest that you start by learning about, understanding, and thinking about the future. To understand the long-term future, it’s helpful to start with the concepts that futurists rely on.

First, the future is not predetermined. That suggests that more than one future is possible, which is the basis for the theory of alternative futures. If the future is not predetermined then there are possibilities of multiple futures or alternative futures. Some of those futures will be better or worse than others. You may be able to choose!

Second, the future cannot be known. Yet, it is possible to make educated guesses about the future. We can guess, with reasonable accuracy, what is the best future or worst future in specific areas.

     Third, the future can be influenced by the actions of groups or individuals. Very important, futurists recognize that actions we take in the present will affect the future.

Think about that third concept for a moment. If you make an airline reservation for next week, you have changed your future. If you agree to meet a friend for dinner this evening you have changed your future. We usually take these small, short-term changes in the future for granted, but if we can change the short-term future, why not change the long-term future? Futurists believe that we can. Actually, this is the theory that underlies strategic planning; the ability to take actions over a period of time that will change (or create) the long-term future. This is where and why you design a vision, a vision of the future you want to be living or working in ten or more years from now, for yourself, your business, or an organization.

In short, you can change the future. Short term or long term. To do so, you will have to think about the future and make decisions about what you want the future to be. Keep in mind that going into the future will not happen in a straight line toward your destination, but will be more like sailing a small boat and tacking back and forth across the wind. The important thing is that you have a destination toward which you are always moving. That is the start of developing a long-term perspective.

In future articles we’ll explore the future, visions, strategies, and long-term thinking in more detail.

 

What if EVERYONE was a futurist?

What if everyone understood the concepts of futuring? Can you imagine if everyone thought about and understood the consequences of their actions before they acted? That one, tiny piece of future thinking would probably have a sizeable impact on the world, because people do a lot of dumb things simply because they have not thought about the consequences.

Let’s take it another step. What if most people seriously thought about their own futures, understood the potential, and acted to achieve the future they wanted. That might change the world!

When I was a student in the Futures Studies graduate program at the University of Houston Clear Lake, I spent a summer with a dozen other students from all over the U.S and many parts of the world, learning about the methods and tools of foresight and futures studies. I remember very clearly that students would say, “Everyone should know this!” This happened when we were studying Systems, Strategic Planning, Scenario development, Visioning and other classes. “Everyone should know this!” It made a strong impression on me. But everything about my studies at UHCL made an impression.

It was very clear to me that futures  methods worked, and worked well. Certainly, there was a lot of discussion and some dispute among authors and experts about strategic planning (for example), but even they agreed that the methods worked when executed correctly. Or maybe I should say that the methods worked well for large organizations, because when I tried to apply all my newfound knowledge to my own life, there were problems. The methods just didn’t fit… They were developed by and for very large organizations, not for individuals.

After completing my studies at UHCL, I signed up to conduct PhD. research under the direction of Graham May at Leeds Metropolitan University. My research topic became Personal Futures; Foresight and Futures Studies for Individuals (available as a free PDF download at www.personalfutures.net). The research was exciting for me, and I learned a great deal about applying futures methods to individuals. The first was that biology is the primary driving force in human lives. We all go through a series of stages in life, and each stage represents substantial change, much of which can be anticipated.

I felt that the traditional life stages used by modern psychologists and dating back to the ancient Greeks were valuable, but I also found that in one respect they were outdated. In the classic stages, Old Age started at about age 50 or 55. I don’t think any modern person at that age feels they are old since we are living much longer, healthier lives. So I substituted “Independent Elder” as the stage following Middle age, then added three optional stages, all related more to declining health than biological change.

Next, I realized that we are all naturally multi-taskers. From birth to death, in every corner of the world, there are six groups of forces in our lives that we manage every day. I called the six groups “personal domains” and they include: Activities, Financial, Health, Housing, Social, and Transportation.

From there, my research was mostly a matter of scaling existing futures methods down to fit individuals and organizing everything into a practical, easy to use system. That effort resulted in a workbook and personal futures workshops. The concepts and the workbook were given their first international test at the World future Society Conference in Toronto in 2006. Participants representing many countries (Turkey, Mexico, UK, Canada and the US that I remember) were enthusiastic with the all-day workshop, and many are prominent futurists today.

That was the start. Since then thousands of copies of the Personal Futures Workbook have been printed and downloaded (it’s a free PDF at www.personalfutures.net) all over the world. My book, It’s YOUR Future…Make it a Good One! has also gone around the world and has already been translated into Turkish and Spanish with several other translations underway now. The book was even awarded the Association of Professional Futurists 2012 “Most Important Futures Work”.

So back to the original question, “What if EVERYONE was a futurist?” I think it’s a worthy goal, and I believe that we have a good start on the tools that can make that happen. Already, enough people are aware of futuring to start making a difference in the way people think about the future (there are more than two dozen universities worldwide offering masters degrees in Foresight and Futures Studies). We are a long way from a tipping point, but the progress is encouraging!

That’s a long way from “Everyone.” But it’s a start. Seven billion to go!

Futurists and strategic planners talk a lot about “Visions.” What is a vision and how can you create a vision of YOUR future?

The first thing to understand is that a "vision" is a destination in your future. A vision is what you see as your life in the future. If you haven’t thought about your life in the future, now is a good time!

In my workshops, I tell people that creating a vision of your future is like planning a vacation. You must decide where you want to go before you can realistically think about how you’re going to get there. If you decided that you want to go on vacation this July, where would you go? Paris, Rome, Beijing, San Francisco? Before you make any other plans, you must decide where you’re going. Once you decide on the destination, you can start making plans.

The same is true when you start thinking about your vision of your future. What is your destination? What do you want your life to be in 10 years? I realize that’s a difficult question because the future is a big place to try to think about so I suggest that you break it down into six parts. In Personal Futures Workshops, we look at the six personal domains in your life: Activities, Finances, Health, Housing, Social, Transportation. Now, ask yourself, for each personal domain, what should my life be like 10 years from now?

Start with Activities, all the things you do; school, work, religion, sports, hobbies — the things you do. What do you want to be doing in your life 10 years from now? Think about this one carefully because our activities tend to fill our days, and if we don’t fill our days with something interesting life may start getting boring. If you are under 60, you will probably still be working, which will keep you busy. If you expect to retire within the next 10 years it’s important that you have enough activities in mind to keep you active most of the time. When I talk to people about their future in retirement, I often hear, “I want to play golf every day.” Or “I want to go fishing every day.” Keep in mind that when you retire, you may be retired for several decades, so you want to plan a life that has enough activities in it to keep your life interesting.

Next, consider Finances. What do you want your financial condition to be in 10 years?

Health. What do you want or expect your health to be like in 10 years?

Housing. Where do you want to be living 10 years from now, and what kind of the home do you expect, a castle or a condominium?

Social. Where will all your family members be living 10 years? Who will be your close friends? Do you see any significant changes in your social circles over the next 10 years?

Transportation. What will be your transportation requirements or needs in 10 years? Will you be commuting? Will your transportation needs change over the next 10 years?

You can probably see that creating a vision of your future is not terribly complicated, but it will require you to actually think about your future. That is probably the most important part of futuring — taking the time to think about what you want your future to be. Once you make the decisions about what you want your life to be like 10 years from now, you will have a destination in the future. Then you can start thinking about how you are going to achieve your vision.

We’ll do that in the next post!

There are two types of forces in your life. You need to understand both kinds

The two types of forces that will affect your life are the internal forces and the external forces. The internal forces are the forces that are part of your life, every day, throughout your life. The external forces are found in the world around you and may occur locally, nationally, or internationally. These are the forces of change in your life, and each will have an impact over time.

Internal forces. When I was conducting research related to personal futures some years ago, I found that each of us is managing our lives on multiple levels. We are all multi-taskers and have been since long before that term came into existence. As part of my research, I identified six different categories of forces in everyone’s life, in effect dividing life into six parts. The six categories are:

Activities- Everything we do. This includes schooling, employment or career, hobbies, religion, travel, sports, and other activities in life.

Finances-  Everything to do with your money, including income, expenses, taxes, credit cards and insurance, among others.

Health- Everything related to your physical and mental health. Hygiene, diet, exercise, medicines, and medical care are some examples.

  Housing- The Housing domain begins with your home, but includes your neighborhood, community, country and climate.

 

Social- The Social domain begins with close family and friends and expands outward to include all the people (and stakeholders) you interact with in your work or your community.

 Transportation and mobility-  Includes all available means of mobility beginning with walking and including all forms of personal and public transportation.

 These descriptions of the categories of forces are not cast in stone! They are flexible, so you can arrange the definitions any way you want, but you should try to be consistent. For example, I’ve shown religion as an activity, but some people prefer to put religion in the social domain. That’s OK. Whatever works for you, because it’s your life that you are thinking about.

As for the external forces, the names of the categories can vary, but I prefer the STEEP categories, because they are easy to remember. The descriptions are broad and obvious

Social

Technology

Economic

Ecology

Political

These are categories of forces outside your life that can, and probably will, have impacts on you. These forces may be active locally, nationally or anywhere in the world. A government overthrown in the Mid-East, the landing of an exploratory rover on Mars, failure or corruption in foreign banks, the election of a new government in Europe; all have the potential to have an impact on your life. A decision in the national government to raise taxes or cut spending may affect your life. A decision by your city government  to put up stop lights, paint pedestrian lines at crossings, create bicycle lanes on roadways, or to repave the street in front of your home may also have impacts on your life.

All of these examples show the forces of change in action, sometimes with large impacts and sometimes with no impact on you at all, but always with the potential to bring about change that will affect you and your life.

None of this should make you nervous in any way, as all these forces have always been there, and will remain. On the other hand, your awareness of these eleven categories of change may have been heightened, and that is the intent of this piece. To help you be fully aware of the potential for change in your life and in the world that can affect you. Because you are now aware, you should be able to deal with all these changes more effectively, possibly turning some in your favor.

Understanding these forces of change should help you anticipate how change will impact you and where it will take you into the future.

 

If you want to learn something about where your future is headed over the next ten years, take a close look at the stakeholders in your life and your career.

Stakeholders are the people (and sometimes the institutions) who can have an impact on your life and your future. Stakeholders are also those who will be impacted by your life and your actions, now and in the future.

Start with your family and close friends. If you have children who are under ten years old, during the next ten years they will become teenagers. That will have an impact on your life! If you have children who are already teenagers, over the next ten years they will be going through big changes in their own lives, and those changes will have an impact on you. Over the next ten years, today’s teenagers will probably complete their education, start work or begin a career, move out of the family home, begin a marriage or other relationship and may start a family—your grandchildren.

Over the next ten years, your parents, grandparents and other relatives will be getting older. Will they retire? Will they move from their home to another city or country? Will they be healthy? What will your relationship be with them and with your spouse’s parents? What will you feel will be your responsibilities to them, and how will you manage those responsibilities?

What about your best friends? They may move to a different area and drift out of your life, or you may still be connected electronically, while others may remain close throughout your life. I have friends from high school (sixty years ago) that I haven’t seen for twenty years, but who still exchange emails with me on a regular basis. Which close friends will still be in your social network ten years from now.

Consider the obvious, the people in your work and career life. How will ten years affect those relationships? If you have a mentor or a tormentor, is that person likely to still be around in ten years? If your best friends are the people you work with, what will happen when you retire?  Most of those relationships may end, leaving a large hole in your social network.

Businesses, institutions, and organizations can be stakeholders in your life. Your employer, your banker, the mortgage holder on your home, your credit card company all have a stake in your life, and can have positive or negative impacts over the next ten years.

As you consider each of the stakeholders in your life and your future, how might your relationship change in each case? Which can get better, which can deteriorate, and why. There may be actions can you take now to insure positive relationships and outcomes. By exploring these relationships now, you can learn something about your future, and find ways to make your future a good one!

 

Blogs About the Future

Recently, I’ve been reading blogs. Lots of blogs! Specifically, I’ve been reading blogs by futurists or about the future. I asked members of the Association of Professional futurists for their suggestions, and I asked the World Futures Studies listserv readers for suggestions. At this point, I have a list of about 200 blogs (it changes quickly!), and I think the list will grow.

The group of bloggers on the World Future Society (www.wfs.org) provided a starting core that aroused my interest about how many futurists might be writing blogs. Then I checked Google and the membership directory of APF, then asked futurists around the world for suggestions. They sent a lot!

I have posted the initial list at www.vernewheelwright.com, and am asking people, including you, to tell me about any blogs that are related to the future that are not already on the list. I think there are a lot. Although the list is about 200 blogs long now, there are futurists that I know that are not here yet, so I’ll start searching them out on-by-one. But you can help.

I believe some futures-bloggers hesitate to put their own name forward. They don’t want to be pushy or publicity seeking. If you are in that category, don’t be modest, send me the name of your blog, the web address, and your first and last names. If you know of a blog about the future or by a futurist, please let me know. My email is verne@personalfutures.net, and I will appreciate your help.

I believe that people, including futurists will find this list of futures blogs to be a great resource. There are some very good writers blogging about the future, and they seem to cover all facets of futuring. They are writing in many languages, representing many cultures.

There is one problem with researching blogs. It is very easy to be drawn in; reading one blog on a site, then checking one previous blog after another. Then starting on another site and repeating the process! I know this can happen because it happened to me while I was building this list. I repeat—there are some very good, thoughtful writers out there.

This blog list will not be confined to my web site. Anyone can link to the list for their own web site, and I will make the list available to Futures organizations who are interested.

For information about personal futuring, please visit my web site http://www.personalfutures.net . You can sign up for my (irregular) newsletter for updates about Personal Futures. For short updates, please follow me on Twitter : @urfuturist. To read the first Chapter of my book It’s Your Future… Make it a Good One! go to http://www.vernewheelwright.com

The Third Step Toward Your Personal Future

This third step could be titled Personal Strategic Planning, because it follows many of the same steps used in corporate strategic planning. But… personal strategic planning is a much simpler process, and it works!

First, you need a vision of your future. Why do you need a vision? Your vision of your future is a destination, a target to aim for; a place to go. As an analogy, if you decide to go on a vacation, one of your first decisions must be the destination. Until you have a destination, there is very little you can do about planning your vacation. The same thing is true about planning for the future. You need a target— a destination.

Some people have a little trouble with the concept of creating a vision of their future, their life ten years from now, because the image is too big and too complex. I suggest that you break your life into the six parts we discussed earlier, your personal domains:

·         Activities

·         Finances

·         Health

·         Housing

·         Social

·         Transportation

Now, ask yourself, for each of these personal domains, “What do I want my life to be like in this domain ten years from now?” Remember, you are not predicting a future in this domain, you are describing a future you want to experience.

That should give you six different views of your future. Next, combine those six views of your future into one— your vision of your future.  Now you have a destination!

In my opinion, developing the vision is the key to strategic planning at any level.

Once you have a vision of the future you want to be living ten years from now, you can start creating strategies to achieve that future. Once again, go back to your six personal domains and design strategies for each domain. Think back to the analogy I used earlier, planning a vacation. Once you have a destination for your vacation (your vision), you can make decisions about how (fly, drive, cruise, etc.) you will get to your destination, where you will stay, and what you will do (your strategies).

It’s worthwhile to spend some time developing your strategies.  Your strategies are how you choose to get from where you are to where you want to be, so there may be several choices. Try to find the best strategy for you in every case.

When you have decided on your strategies, you then ready to decide on when you will execute each part of each strategy over the next ten years. This will become your “action” plan; the series of actions you will take to execute each of your strategies over the next ten years. There are different ways to approach the action plan. One is to start from today and lay out a sequence of steps for each strategy. Another is to pretend you are in your future, than look backward to see what sequence of actions you followed to arrive in your future. In practice, you may find that you develop the sequences combining those two approaches.

Now, this is important. Read it twice. Your action plan is a guide to your future that can be changed at any time. You are not and should not feel locked in to a plan. This is your plan, and you are free to change it at any time. Just like your vacation plans, you should be able to make changes at any time.

Finally, create contingency plans for low-probability, high-impact events (wild cards) that may occur over the next ten years. Think through the strategies and actions for each event, then write down what you decide. If the event occurs, you have a plan and are ready to deal with the event.

And that is personal futuring in three steps; understanding your life, exploring alternate futures, and creating a vision, strategies and plans for your future.

 In my next blog, I’ll suggest how to analyze your plan and make adjustments where necessary.

If you haven’t already, consider downloading the free Personal Futures Workbook at www.personalfutures.net.  You can also sign in to receive occasional newsletters about Personal Futuring.

If you are waiting for a digital version of It’s YOUR Future…Make it a Good One! You will find one at Amazon.com, at BarnesandNoble.com, and in the Apple iBookstore. The eBook can also be downloaded from either of my web sites, http://www.personalfutures.net or http://www.vernewheelwright.com, where you can also read the first chapter online.  For short updates, follow me on Twitter @urfuturist.

The Second Step Toward Your Personal Future

The second step toward your personal future involves exploring multiple alternative futures. This is the scenario method, in my opinion the heart of futuring.

In the first step, you did the research on your life; your life stage, your stakeholders, the forces in your life, high probability/ high impact events, and values. If you haven’t already, I suggest you download the Personal Futures Workbook. It’s a free PDF download at www.personalfutures.net .What I show you here is a little different than the workbook, but is what you’ll find in the next version (soon!) of the workbook and in my book; It’s YOUR Future… Make it a Good One!

Your first scenario will contain information that will be used in all your personal scenarios. We’ll call this baseline scenario,”Continuation of the present into the future.” This scenario assumes very little unexpected change in your life over the next ten years. You and your stakeholders will all be ten years older and in new stages of your lives. The high probability/high impact events commonly associated with those life stages will be included. The forces in your life, your personal domains, will be calm with no major unexpected change, and the world around you will be generally stable. This is your future absent unanticipated change.

The rest of your scenarios will have change superimposed upon this baseline scenario.

The next scenario is a positive scenario, the “Best Plausible” scenario. Note I’m saying “plausible” not “possible” because this is a scenario that is reasonable to anticipate. No miracles (i.e. winning the lottery), just a combination of good forces moving in your favor.

Now, look at each of your personal domains:

·         Activities

·         Finances

·         Health

·         Housing

·         Social

·         Transportation

In each domain, what are the best things that could reasonably happen in your life over the next ten years? (There are charts in the workbook to help with this.) Simply add those positive events and the forces that lead up to them into a copy of your baseline scenario. Now you have all of the elements of a positive scenario.

Now, reverse your direction to create your “Worst Plausible” scenario. For each domain, what are the worst plausible events that could happen in your life over the next ten years? Add those negative events into a baseline scenario to create your negative scenario.

Traditionally, the next scenario is a “Wild Card” scenario, driven by one or more low probability/high impact events. Winning the lottery and natural disasters all fall into this category. I live near the Gulf Coast of Texas, so hurricanes seem like a natural wild card.

But there is something new in Wild Card events, and that is the “Aspirational Scenario’ introduced by futurist Clem Bezold. In this scenario, the driving force at work is the will of the subject of the scenario to achieve something that others consider unachievable. In It’s YOUR Future… Make it a good One! the twenty- year-old example character aspires to write a best-selling novel before age thirty (It’s been done. Ken Kesey comes to mind—he wrote two!).

At this point, you have all the elements of four or five personal scenarios, but having the elements or concepts is not enough. It is important to write out a short (or long) story for each scenario that shows how your life might unfold over the next ten years if you lived in that scenario. Don’t be intimidated by the idea of writing out your scenarios. You need a beginning, a middle and an end that describes what happens in your life in this scenario, how it unfolds and why.

In workshops, people sometimes hesitate at writing scenarios, but once they have the finished story in front of them, they are proud of their achievement. Why is this step of writing the scenario so important? In the future, you will be able to recall or read your scenarios and relate them to how your life is actually unfolding, and you will understand which scenario you are actually living and why.

There is more information about personal scenarios and futuring on my web site, www.personalfutures.net and information on It’s YOUR Future… Make it a good One! and other writings at www.vernewheelwright.com . Follow me: @urfuturist.

So—What Are You Going To Do About It?

You’ve read about the future, heard people speak about the future, watched videos about the future, and more.

So what?

What have you done about the future? Particularly, what have you done about your own future?

This is a challenge. Take a little time and think about your future, then do something about it. Now. Whether you are a big-company CEO or looking for work, there is a lot you can know about your future. There is a lot you should know.  Most important, there is a lot you can do about your future.

How do you do that? Here’s a start— go to www.personalfutures.net, then go to the “Free Downloads” page. Download The Personal Futures Workbook, then download the spreadsheet near the bottom of the “Free Downloads” page. If you have a small business, you may be interested in the Small Business Foresight download as well. Now, look at some of the pages on this site that explain a little about planning your own future. If you want more detailed information, my book It’s Your Future… Make it a Good One! is available in paperback or eBook on this site, as well as at Amazon, Barnes and Noble and Apple sites. But you don't have to buy the book( Sure, I hope you do, but you can do this with the free workbook and the materials on the web site). The book simply provides more information and examples that will help you think about your future.

Fill out the workbook. This will require you to actually think about your future— what it may be and what it can be. In the process, you will be using exactly the same methods used around the world by professional futurists and large organizations. The only difference is that the methods are scaled down to fit your life. If you’re skeptical, this approach has been published widely in journals and in the Futurist. The book and workbooks are used as textbooks at several colleges and universities. The book and the workbooks have gone all over the world.

But the book and the workbook simply provide a system; a system for thinking about and taking action toward your future. This is not a book to simply read and feel good about. This is a book and workbook system that requires thought and action.

Does it work? The emails I have received are pretty emphatic that it does. I have been told several times that a workbook or workshop “…changed my life!” I’ve seen the results in the lives of several people. So I would say yes.

Try this system. It may change your future. It will teach you about futures tools and methods. It may give you a long term perspective (very important!). If you have questions as you go through the personal futuring process, send me an email. verne@personalfutures.net. I’ll answer.

Email me: verne@personalfutures.net.

Follow me on Twitter: @urfuturist

On Facebook: www.facebook.com/pages/Personal-Futures-Network/155105317867526

The First Step Toward Your Future

Personal Futures is simply a system for applying futures (or futurist’s) methods to individual lives. These methods have been used (quite successfully) by corporations and governments around the world for decades. It’s just a matter of scale. And simplicity.

When I started my research, scaling down was THE challenge. Not so much for the futures methods, they scale easily. The problem was the research. The basic information about each individual’s life. Where does an individual (you)start? What are the driving forces? What are plausible and probable events in your future?

In building a systematic approach to personal futures, I arrived at three major steps:

                1-Understanding your life (research).

                2-Exploring alternate futures (personal scenario s).

                3- Creating a vision, strategies and plans for the future (personal strategic planning).

Which brings us to that first step, “Understanding your life”. Where are you in life now (age, health, education, family, etc.)? What are the forces of change in your life? What are the high probability events in your future? What are the patterns? What are the universals? What are your values?

One “universal” is biology, the human life cycle, which breaks down into stages. Life stages were identified centuries ago and can be found in the writings of the ancient Greeks. Psychologists today still recognize life stages. For an individual, each life stage can represent a planning period, and each change from one life stage to another represents important change in any individual’s life. If one understands  or has mental images of the future stages of life, they provide a frame upon which planning can begin.

Another universal lies in six personal domains. Each domain represents a category of forces that exist in every person’s life from birth to death. Recognizing these domains and the forces within them is an important part of understanding your future, because these are the forces that bring about change in your life. The six personal domains include:

                Activities- the things we do, including education, career, sports, religion, hobbies, etc.

                Finances- everything to do with money, assets, liabilities, and risk.

                Health- your health, both physical and mental and any care or medications you receive.

                Housing- your home, community, country, climate. All about where you live.

                Social- family, friends, neighbors, co-workers. All the people in your life.

Transportation- relates to all modes and aspects of transportation including walking and distance. 

Generally, during any life stage, forces from at least two domains will be dominant during that stage. So, understanding the domains and the forces can help you understand how changes in the forces can produce changes in your life. By projecting how each of the domains, and particularly the dominant domains might behave in the future, it is possible to anticipate changes in your future. For example, if you think of your career as a force of change, how will your career change over the next ten years? How will those changes impact your life?

When something specific happens in your life, we call it an event. Each event in life is part of one of your six domains. Also, each event will occur during one of your life stages. During your lifetime many events occur, and they have two common characteristics that make them of interest to your future:

                Probability
                Impact

Although some events are highly probable in your life, many have very little impact on your life. Birthdays for example.  Very predictable, but not much impact. As you think about the future, your greatest consideration should be for those events that have both high probability and high impact. These are the events for which you will want to create strategies and plans for your future. These are events that you will have in your personal scenarios and your strategic plan.

Another factor to consider in your personal life is your values. What’s important in your life? Family? Ethics? Career? Money? Power? Which is most important of all? What’s next?

Why should you be concerned with your values? Because your values are your rudder, steering you through your life. If you understand what your values really are, you’ll be more likely to choose the right value when you’re under pressure.

These four areas, life stages, personal domains, life events and personal values contain enough information about your life to help you start looking at your future. Preparing for it. Planning for it. Going beyond wishing and starting to work toward the future you want.

There are some worksheets and workbooks (free downloads) on my web site that will help you with all this: www.personalfutures.net.  Details about my new book It’s YOUR Future… Make it a Good One! are on my personal web site, www.vernewheelwright.com. The first chapter is available as a free PDF download.

In my next blog, we’ll explore your alternate personal futures with personal scenarios. In the meantime, you can follow me on Twitter @urfuturist.

The Next Generation of Futurists

For the past three years, I’ve had the pleasure and opportunity to chair a committee for the Association of Professional Futurists the, Student Recognition Project. This project has given me the opportunity to correspond with futures educators around the world, and to read papers from the brightest and the best of the next generation of futurists. The quality level of some of these papers is amazing. I know that word is overused, but it’s the best description I can think of.

When I was a student in Studies of the Future at the University of Houston Clear Lake (1998-1999) I was impressed with the quality of students that I was competing/collaborating with at that time. Most of them are professional futurists now. But the quality level of the work being done today, all around the globe, should help elevate the entire profession.

One thing troubles me though. And that is that I’m only seeing a fraction of the work that is being done by students of Foresight and Futures Studies. We are only receiving the papers that are written or translated into English. That means that many of the schools that conduct foresight classes in another language are not participating; for which I take some responsibility. In our first year of the project, we paid for translations of student papers. Only one school submitted papers for translation, but the expense surprised me. It also surprised the Board of APF, because it represented an open-ended risk. One Board member, Stephen Aguilar-Milan, argued strongly for offering full translation, but, although I and most of the Board agreed with his point of view, the risk was too high.

So the second and third years, we asked for papers in English. I offered software translation, but no takers. So we will be looking for a solution that will make the Student program more inclusive.

We have received all the student entries from school year 2010 in mid-January, and our chief judge, Jim Mathews is getting ready to send the papers out to the judges who will read the papers and pick the best. Not an easy job, but it certainly gives perspective on the next generation of futurists!

As those papers are being read, we on the APF committee will start to think about the Student Recognition Project for 2011. What can we do to improve the Project? How can we make it more inclusive? How can we resolve the translation problem?

If you have suggestions or ideas for improving this project, please email me at verne@personalfutures.net.

In closing, I would like to invite you to visit my web sites, www.personalfutures.net (with free downloads including the Personal Futures Workbook, 4th edition) www.vernewheelwright.com (my books and other writing—read the first chapter of It’s YOUR Future… Make it a Good One!) The Personal Futures Network has a page on Facebook (new). Come be a fan! Finally you can follow me on Twitter @urfuturist . I’ll be sending updates from Mumbai during February.

Verne

A New Edition of The Personal Futures Workbook

It was something of a surprise to me to realize that the new version of the Personal Futures Workbook that I’ve been working on is the Fourth Edition. The first was a 30 page workbook that was actually an appendix to my dissertation, which was formally approved in very early 2006. The next year, I expanded the Workbook to over 90 pages so it would be useful in workshops. It was well received.


In early 2008, I slimmed the workbook down to 50+ pages, produced it in Acrobat PDF, and posted it on my web site. This (3rd edition) was very well received, because people could bring their notebook computers to a workshop after downloading the Workbook. Especially well received, because the download was free! Soon the website was getting traffic from all over the world. Fifty or sixty different countries every month.

Then friends in different countries translated the workbook, and I added the Spanish and German versions to the web site, also as free downloads. In the meantime, I was writing It’s YOUR Future… Make it a Good One!

I knew I needed to update the workbook to match the chapters in It’s YOUR Future…, but writing, publishing and releasing the book just gobbled up all my time. Over the holidays I was able to catch up on a number of things, including updating my skills on Acrobat, so the new version of the Workbook is pretty much complete and in the hands of reviewers. It will be posted at www.personalfutures.net by January 15, and if I need to make corrections I can continue to do so.

What’s new or different? First, I realigned the chapters in the Workbook to match It’s YOUR Future…, adding a few worksheets as well. Then I added some color and more photos, making collages for each life stage and for each of the forces of change, the Personal Domains.

This edition of the Workbook will continue to be a free download with a Creative Commons license, so the Workbook will be available and shareable anywhere that people can access the Internet.

It’s YOUR Future… Make it a Good One! is now available at online bookstores in much of the world and on my web site, www.vernewheelwright.com . The list price is $17.50 for the paperback edition and $8.99 US for electronic versions. Amazon offers It’s YOUR Future… for Kindle, and Apple’s iBookstore should have it available for the iPad during January.

I have had inquiries from publishers in a number of countries that have expressed an interest in translating and publishing It’s YOUR Future… but no decisions have been made yet. So 2010 has been a busy but gratifying year. I even signed up for a Facebook fan page for the Personal Futures Network and am on Twitter (@urfuturist).

I’ll be traveling to Mumbai next month to speak to the World HRD Congress, and to receive an award. I will speak about Leadership and the Long Term Perspective.

That Image on the Cover

Yes. The one on the front of It’s YOUR Future… Make it a Good One! If you haven’t seen it yet, check it out at the Amazon or Barnes and Noble web sites or at www.vernewheelwright.com.

Several people have asked about the “compass” hanging above the globe. Actually, the designer used a “compass rose’, the outer design that shows the four directions, but the center is another instrument that is found in airplanes of all types and sizes. It is an “attitude indicator,” also called an “artificial horizon.” It shows the pilot the position of the airplane relative to the horizon: banking left or right, climbing or descending. A very useful device, especially in bad weather. A pilot who is not aware of his or her plane’s attitude can get into trouble very quickly.

I was surprised when I first saw this cover design, but quickly decided the designer had the right idea, because that is what this book is about, understanding where you are in life and in the world around you. The exercises with the personal domains help you recognize where you’ve been and where you are now in each domain. Studying the forces in the world around you also help you recognize your position in the larger world. There’s a reason why futurists use the term “horizon scanning.”

Just one more note about the book, I had a very short video made, a book trailer. If you’d like to see it on YouTube, here’s the link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anKiQ_rJua4. If you would like to read the first chapter of It’s YOUR Future… Make it a Good One! you’ll find the download at www.vernewheelwright.com .

Practicing What I Preach

I realize that events going on in my life are far more important to me than they are to you, so I hope you’ll indulge me as I go on about achieving my own aspirational future. It may offer some guideposts as you think about your future.

When I was in graduate school at the University of Houston Clear Lake, it was the late nineties. In fact, I was awarded my Master’s degree in Studies of the Future in 2000. In my keystone class in the last semester, an important assignment for the class was to create a personal strategic plan. After two years of learning about futures methods and how to use them, I was ready! I thought.

This was not a cakewalk for me, because it was at this point that I realized that futures methods and techniques I had learned were designed for large organizations. Those methods worked very well in that setting, but there was some trouble scaling down to one person’s future—mine. Fortunately, I went on to create a personal strategic plan that has served me very well over the past ten years, because I have followed it very closely.

My vision included retirement from my business (exporting paper and other commodities) and writing a book. For me, writing a book was my aspiration. So I started reducing the size of my business and finally retired the company. At the same time, I enrolled in a PhD. program to do research with futurist Graham May at Leeds Metropolitan University in the UK. This was the aspirational part of my vision. I would conduct research to prove the scalabilty of futures methods while developing a system that individuals could use to learn about and plan for their own futures. I called the system Personal Futures.

My dissertation was titled Personal Futures: Foresight and Futures Studies for Individuals. It’s offered as a free download on my web site (www.personalfutures.net), and I’m amazed how many people actually download it.

The research led to the Personal Futures Workbook, which I have used in workshops and presentations about Personal Futures. Since 2008, the workbook has also been available as a free PDF download. Recently, the workbook has been joined by a Spanish translation and a German translation, also free downloads. I’ve been updating the workbook this year, adding a little color and a few more worksheets. It will parallel the book I’ve been writing; It’s YOUR Future… Make it a Good One!

The book is at the printer and should be available by September 1. I’m told that an advance shipment will be on the way to me this week. This very symbolic for me, because writing this book was the aspirational part of my plan.

So my strategic plan worked. In the process of achieving my vision and plan (and this book), I’ve been able to help thousands of people all over the world who downloaded the workbook. I’m hoping to reach more people with this book, which will provide a lot more explanation and detail (and over 100 diagrams and tables) than the workbook can.

Now I’ve achieved my plan, just like I tell people they can, and I did it just like I describe the system in the book and the workbook. The Personal Futures system works, and now I’m working on my own personal strategic plan for the next ten years. Part of that plan will be involved with getting this book to people around the world and starting on the next book. If you want more details, I’ve started another web site, www.vernewheelwright.com. This site is mostly about my writing, with most of the emphasis on It’s YOUR Future…Make it a Good One!

In my last post, I mentioned an article I had written for the World Future Society, “Strategies for Living a Long Life.” Thanks to the generosity of WFS, a PDF file of that article is posted as a free download at www.personalfutures.net. There is also a link to WFS, where you can order the whole conference volume if you wish.

Finally, I’ve joined the twenty-first century and can now be found on Twitter @urfuturist. I hope you will follow me into the future!

After a Little Time Off!

This blog has been neglected recently, and for that I apologize.

So I’ll try to explain (justify!?) my absence and offer an update.

In short, I’ve been writing a book, and it has consumed my time. The working title of the book is It’s YOUR Future…Make it a good one! The book will be a step-by-step guide to the futuring process.

I’ve finally sent the manuscript off to my editors, and now I’m polishing all the illustrations, tables, charts, examples, etc. that help explain how to explore and prepare for the future. If all goes smoothly, the book should be in print by August or September and will be offered immediately on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, Borders and other on-line stores. Getting into brick and mortar stores will take a little longer.

At the same time that I’m finishing It’s YOUR Future…, I’m updating the Personal Futures Workbook (a free download at www.personalfutures.net). The updating of the Workbook will add several new worksheets, and the steps in the Workbook will follow the same sequence as the book. That will make it easy to use the book and the workbook together. (Note: The Personal Futures Workbook will continue to be available as a free download).

I have no illusions about selling enough books to change my life style, but I think this is a book that needed to be written. My workshops have demonstrated that personal futures concepts can change people’s lives at all ages, and I get emails from people at every age level who have used the Workbook, nearly all of them saying “Thank you!” and telling me that the workbook has helped them.

When I start marketing the book, I will try in particular to reach young people, who are making such big decisions that will affect the rest of their lives. I hope to speak about Personal Futures at colleges and universities, possibly to students taking “college success” classes. I’ll also focus on people who are thinking about retirement, because they also are also making big decisions that will change their lives.

It’s YOUR Future… is intended to be more than a guide to preparing for your personal future. The book is intended to teach people how to think differently. How to think long term. Something that I feel is missing in business and executive education.

In short, I think that a lot of people will benefit from Personal Futures in different ways and over time.

Despite neglecting this space, I have continued to write articles while working on It’s YOUR future… One article was for the Journal of Futures Studies, titled the “Next Wave,” due to be published in May. The subject is the apparent growing interest in the future by individuals. There is also an article in the Conference Volume for the World Future Society meetings in July titled “Strategies for Living a Long Life.”

That about catches me up for the moment! If you haven’t been to the web site lately, updating is just starting there: www.personalfutures.net.

Workshops, etc.

My initial Personal Futures workshop was not a roaring success, at first.

The local Chamber of Commerce helped set up and promote the workshop, but only six people showed up. Half were Chamber staff. It was actually a good workshop. Everyone got involved, asked questions and participated. They learned about their futures, and I learned quite a bit about conducting workshops.

The real payoff came about two weeks later. One of the participants from the workshop came up to me after a local meeting and made the whole workshop experience worthwhile when she said, “Your workshop has changed my life!”

My next workshop was for a World Future Society meeting in Toronto. This time there were a dozen participants, all paid! Not financially exciting for WFS, but exciting for me. Again, everyone who attended became involved in the discussions, and along the way I gained some experience in dealing with people who wanted to take the session in different directions, but I was able to keep the group on track. I still get emails from people in that group.

One lady came from Turkey to attend that workshop, then flew home the next day. Didn’t stay for the WFS conference. Within months, she started a business to teach Personal Futures to high school and college age students. She translated and adapted my workbook to Turkish culture and wrote a book of her own. Another year late, she organized Turkey’s first international conference “Futuristler Zervesi.” I was invited as one of the main speakers.

I could see that my workshops were in fact changing lives. Quite a responsibility. Very rewarding.

At that conference in Istanbul, I spoke about Personal Futures, explaining futures concepts and methods. All of this was translated to most of the audience, although I learned later that there were a large number of English speakers in attendance. The PowerPoint slides were displayed on two screens, one in English and one in Turkish. I spoke a little bit more slowly and paused for the interpreter at each slide, There was very little lag and the audience was quite responsive.

I learned early with my workshops and lectures that right after a presentation, everyone is enthusiastic and congratulatory, which is gratifying for the speaker, but brief. What surprised me in Istanbul was the number of people, largely English speaking students, who sought me out in the hallways during the breaks and at the end of the conference. They had clearly understood my message, and asked questions. Good questions.

Since then, I have been working on a book, It’s YOUR Future…Make It a Good One! which will be published during 2010. Although the book is for all age groups, I had young people in mind as I wrote. Partly because this is an age group that is making big decisions about their lives, and partly because of the enthusiasm of the university students I met in Istanbul.

Once the publishing details for my book are sorted out, I plan to return to speaking and conducting workshops. I expect to make a specific effort to contact Community Colleges and Universities and offer to speak to students and faculties about the future and, of course, about their personal futures.

If you know someone who is looking for a speaker to talk about the future, anywhere, I hope you will keep me in mind. I can be reached at verne@personalfutures.net.