This blog has been neglected recently, and for that I apologize.
So I’ll try to explain (justify!?) my absence and offer an update.
In short, I’ve been writing a book, and it has consumed my time. The working title of the book is It’s YOUR Future…Make it a good one! The book will be a step-by-step guide to the futuring process.
I’ve finally sent the manuscript off to my editors, and now I’m polishing all the illustrations, tables, charts, examples, etc. that help explain how to explore and prepare for the future. If all goes smoothly, the book should be in print by August or September and will be offered immediately on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, Borders and other on-line stores. Getting into brick and mortar stores will take a little longer.
At the same time that I’m finishing It’s YOUR Future…, I’m updating the Personal Futures Workbook (a free download at www.personalfutures.net). The updating of the Workbook will add several new worksheets, and the steps in the Workbook will follow the same sequence as the book. That will make it easy to use the book and the workbook together. (Note: The Personal Futures Workbook will continue to be available as a free download).
I have no illusions about selling enough books to change my life style, but I think this is a book that needed to be written. My workshops have demonstrated that personal futures concepts can change people’s lives at all ages, and I get emails from people at every age level who have used the Workbook, nearly all of them saying “Thank you!” and telling me that the workbook has helped them.
When I start marketing the book, I will try in particular to reach young people, who are making such big decisions that will affect the rest of their lives. I hope to speak about Personal Futures at colleges and universities, possibly to students taking “college success” classes. I’ll also focus on people who are thinking about retirement, because they also are also making big decisions that will change their lives.
It’s YOUR Future… is intended to be more than a guide to preparing for your personal future. The book is intended to teach people how to think differently. How to think long term. Something that I feel is missing in business and executive education.
In short, I think that a lot of people will benefit from Personal Futures in different ways and over time.
Despite neglecting this space, I have continued to write articles while working on It’s YOUR future… One article was for the Journal of Futures Studies, titled the “Next Wave,” due to be published in May. The subject is the apparent growing interest in the future by individuals. There is also an article in the Conference Volume for the World Future Society meetings in July titled “Strategies for Living a Long Life.”
That about catches me up for the moment! If you haven’t been to the web site lately, updating is just starting there: www.personalfutures.net.
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Workshops, etc.
My initial Personal Futures workshop was not a roaring success, at first.
The local Chamber of Commerce helped set up and promote the workshop, but only six people showed up. Half were Chamber staff. It was actually a good workshop. Everyone got involved, asked questions and participated. They learned about their futures, and I learned quite a bit about conducting workshops.
The real payoff came about two weeks later. One of the participants from the workshop came up to me after a local meeting and made the whole workshop experience worthwhile when she said, “Your workshop has changed my life!”
My next workshop was for a World Future Society meeting in Toronto. This time there were a dozen participants, all paid! Not financially exciting for WFS, but exciting for me. Again, everyone who attended became involved in the discussions, and along the way I gained some experience in dealing with people who wanted to take the session in different directions, but I was able to keep the group on track. I still get emails from people in that group.
One lady came from Turkey to attend that workshop, then flew home the next day. Didn’t stay for the WFS conference. Within months, she started a business to teach Personal Futures to high school and college age students. She translated and adapted my workbook to Turkish culture and wrote a book of her own. Another year late, she organized Turkey’s first international conference “Futuristler Zervesi.” I was invited as one of the main speakers.
I could see that my workshops were in fact changing lives. Quite a responsibility. Very rewarding.
At that conference in Istanbul, I spoke about Personal Futures, explaining futures concepts and methods. All of this was translated to most of the audience, although I learned later that there were a large number of English speakers in attendance. The PowerPoint slides were displayed on two screens, one in English and one in Turkish. I spoke a little bit more slowly and paused for the interpreter at each slide, There was very little lag and the audience was quite responsive.
I learned early with my workshops and lectures that right after a presentation, everyone is enthusiastic and congratulatory, which is gratifying for the speaker, but brief. What surprised me in Istanbul was the number of people, largely English speaking students, who sought me out in the hallways during the breaks and at the end of the conference. They had clearly understood my message, and asked questions. Good questions.
Since then, I have been working on a book, It’s YOUR Future…Make It a Good One! which will be published during 2010. Although the book is for all age groups, I had young people in mind as I wrote. Partly because this is an age group that is making big decisions about their lives, and partly because of the enthusiasm of the university students I met in Istanbul.
Once the publishing details for my book are sorted out, I plan to return to speaking and conducting workshops. I expect to make a specific effort to contact Community Colleges and Universities and offer to speak to students and faculties about the future and, of course, about their personal futures.
If you know someone who is looking for a speaker to talk about the future, anywhere, I hope you will keep me in mind. I can be reached at verne@personalfutures.net.
The local Chamber of Commerce helped set up and promote the workshop, but only six people showed up. Half were Chamber staff. It was actually a good workshop. Everyone got involved, asked questions and participated. They learned about their futures, and I learned quite a bit about conducting workshops.
The real payoff came about two weeks later. One of the participants from the workshop came up to me after a local meeting and made the whole workshop experience worthwhile when she said, “Your workshop has changed my life!”
My next workshop was for a World Future Society meeting in Toronto. This time there were a dozen participants, all paid! Not financially exciting for WFS, but exciting for me. Again, everyone who attended became involved in the discussions, and along the way I gained some experience in dealing with people who wanted to take the session in different directions, but I was able to keep the group on track. I still get emails from people in that group.
One lady came from Turkey to attend that workshop, then flew home the next day. Didn’t stay for the WFS conference. Within months, she started a business to teach Personal Futures to high school and college age students. She translated and adapted my workbook to Turkish culture and wrote a book of her own. Another year late, she organized Turkey’s first international conference “Futuristler Zervesi.” I was invited as one of the main speakers.
I could see that my workshops were in fact changing lives. Quite a responsibility. Very rewarding.
At that conference in Istanbul, I spoke about Personal Futures, explaining futures concepts and methods. All of this was translated to most of the audience, although I learned later that there were a large number of English speakers in attendance. The PowerPoint slides were displayed on two screens, one in English and one in Turkish. I spoke a little bit more slowly and paused for the interpreter at each slide, There was very little lag and the audience was quite responsive.
I learned early with my workshops and lectures that right after a presentation, everyone is enthusiastic and congratulatory, which is gratifying for the speaker, but brief. What surprised me in Istanbul was the number of people, largely English speaking students, who sought me out in the hallways during the breaks and at the end of the conference. They had clearly understood my message, and asked questions. Good questions.
Since then, I have been working on a book, It’s YOUR Future…Make It a Good One! which will be published during 2010. Although the book is for all age groups, I had young people in mind as I wrote. Partly because this is an age group that is making big decisions about their lives, and partly because of the enthusiasm of the university students I met in Istanbul.
Once the publishing details for my book are sorted out, I plan to return to speaking and conducting workshops. I expect to make a specific effort to contact Community Colleges and Universities and offer to speak to students and faculties about the future and, of course, about their personal futures.
If you know someone who is looking for a speaker to talk about the future, anywhere, I hope you will keep me in mind. I can be reached at verne@personalfutures.net.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Looking for “Universals”
When I first started doing my research into personal futures, I searched for "universals." I was looking for the things that all people have in common in their lives. What do we all share? Past, present, and future?
Biology is an obvious starting point. We all live through the same lifecycle of birth, life, and death. I spent a considerable amount of time looking at life stages going back to the writings of the ancient Greeks up through Shakespeare's "seven ages of man" and on to the work of Eric Erickson in the mid-20th century. All have observed that we humans pass through different stages of life. Some of those stages are purely biology based on physical and mental growth or decline. Other stages, later in life, are related more to health.
So here was my first universal, the stages of life. And I found the stages very helpful, because breaking life into stages highlighted the points in life where change occurs. And that's what the future is about: change. We want to identify things that are going to change in our lives in the future. So this made a good starting point. No matter what age you are or what time of life, there are stages ahead that you can identify, visualize, and understand as being times of change.
I did make some adjustments to the traditional stages, primarily because we are all living longer now. Psychologists have considered “Old Age” to begin at 50 or 55, based largely on Erikson’s work. I extended middle age to 60 and changed “Old Age” to “Independent Elder.” Later. (after some protests in my workshops) I just used “Independent.” I also added three optional stages which are based primarily on an individual’s health. Some people pass through all three optional stages, and others skip them all. The terms I used for those three optional stages are self-explanatory: “Vulnerable,” “Dependent,” and “End of Life.”
The second set of universals rose out of my research with people over age sixty. As I categorized the responses from questionnaires and interviews, I realized that all of us are true multi-taskers. We deal with several levels of life every day, and these levels are the forces that drive our personal lives. I chose the term “Domains” for the six different categories:
• Activities
• Finances
• Health
• Housing
• Social
• Transportation
These domains are each described in detail in the Personal Futures Workbook, which is available as a free download at www.PersonalFutures.Net.
Beyond life stages and personal domains I found areas of commonality, but no more real universals. We all have events that occur in our lives, but those events vary with individuals and with cultures. We all have values, but values also vary with individuals and cultures. But the combination of what any individual can anticipate from life stages, personal domains (forces), life events and personal values provides a substantial base from which one can anticipate plausible futures in scenarios, then make plans for the future.
Although it seems obvious, I was impressed by the variables, both by chance and by choice, that can affect or change any individual’s future. The chances and choices seem limitless, yet anyone, starting with wherever they may be in life, can learn a great deal about their future.
And this affects everyone, including you. By simply taking the time to analyze where you are in your life now and what forces are bringing change into your life, you can anticipate a great deal about your future. Moreover, to a surprising extent, you can shape, change, create or determine your future.
I’ve been working with those concepts for over ten years now, and still find myself impressed with the possibilities we, each of us, has to manage our futures. All it takes is a little time and some thought. It will change your life.
Biology is an obvious starting point. We all live through the same lifecycle of birth, life, and death. I spent a considerable amount of time looking at life stages going back to the writings of the ancient Greeks up through Shakespeare's "seven ages of man" and on to the work of Eric Erickson in the mid-20th century. All have observed that we humans pass through different stages of life. Some of those stages are purely biology based on physical and mental growth or decline. Other stages, later in life, are related more to health.
So here was my first universal, the stages of life. And I found the stages very helpful, because breaking life into stages highlighted the points in life where change occurs. And that's what the future is about: change. We want to identify things that are going to change in our lives in the future. So this made a good starting point. No matter what age you are or what time of life, there are stages ahead that you can identify, visualize, and understand as being times of change.
I did make some adjustments to the traditional stages, primarily because we are all living longer now. Psychologists have considered “Old Age” to begin at 50 or 55, based largely on Erikson’s work. I extended middle age to 60 and changed “Old Age” to “Independent Elder.” Later. (after some protests in my workshops) I just used “Independent.” I also added three optional stages which are based primarily on an individual’s health. Some people pass through all three optional stages, and others skip them all. The terms I used for those three optional stages are self-explanatory: “Vulnerable,” “Dependent,” and “End of Life.”
The second set of universals rose out of my research with people over age sixty. As I categorized the responses from questionnaires and interviews, I realized that all of us are true multi-taskers. We deal with several levels of life every day, and these levels are the forces that drive our personal lives. I chose the term “Domains” for the six different categories:
• Activities
• Finances
• Health
• Housing
• Social
• Transportation
These domains are each described in detail in the Personal Futures Workbook, which is available as a free download at www.PersonalFutures.Net.
Beyond life stages and personal domains I found areas of commonality, but no more real universals. We all have events that occur in our lives, but those events vary with individuals and with cultures. We all have values, but values also vary with individuals and cultures. But the combination of what any individual can anticipate from life stages, personal domains (forces), life events and personal values provides a substantial base from which one can anticipate plausible futures in scenarios, then make plans for the future.
Although it seems obvious, I was impressed by the variables, both by chance and by choice, that can affect or change any individual’s future. The chances and choices seem limitless, yet anyone, starting with wherever they may be in life, can learn a great deal about their future.
And this affects everyone, including you. By simply taking the time to analyze where you are in your life now and what forces are bringing change into your life, you can anticipate a great deal about your future. Moreover, to a surprising extent, you can shape, change, create or determine your future.
I’ve been working with those concepts for over ten years now, and still find myself impressed with the possibilities we, each of us, has to manage our futures. All it takes is a little time and some thought. It will change your life.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Personal Futures: Gateway to a long term perspective.
If you work in nearly any medium or larger size organization, you have probably been exposed to Strategic Planning, and maybe even Scenario Development. Unfortunately, as you may well be aware, exposure is not the equivalent of in-depth understanding.
Personal Futures offers an opportunity to learn and use a number of methods, tools and techniques practiced effectively by futurists and long term strategic planners. The critical element is scale. Personal Futures teaches futures methods on the scale of an individual life, a scale that anyone can learn, understand and use effectively. You can try this at home!
Once learned, the knowledge of these methods and how they work is scalable to any size operation. This is not to suggest that individuals who read a book or attend a workshop are qualified to lead a corporate strategic planning team, but they should be much better prepared to converse, understand and participate in the process at any level. That understanding is valuable, anywhere in an organization, to the development and implementation of a strategic plan.
Beyond scenarios, strategies and plans, Personal Futures teaches individuals the concepts of long term thinking or long term perspective. Kouzes and Posner state that their research found that long term perspective was second only to honesty in traits critical to leadership.
That raises the question, “How does one learn long term perspective?” As a researcher and writer about Personal Futures, I may have a bias, but how else? Personal Futures.
Some people seem to be born with that skill, the ability to think and understand how things may work out in the years ahead. Most of us aren’t.
About a year and a half ago, Jeff Gold (of Leeds Metropolitan University) and I presented a paper on Personal Futures and how those concepts relate to individual career paths to members of AHRD. We were surprised when several participants came to us and suggested that Personal Futures was a tool they could use in Executive Learning. Leadership. Long term perspective.
If a long term perspective might be valuable to you, take a look at the Personal Futures Workbook at www.PersonalFutures.net. It’s on the “Downloads” page and is FREE. No strings attached.
Personal Futures offers an opportunity to learn and use a number of methods, tools and techniques practiced effectively by futurists and long term strategic planners. The critical element is scale. Personal Futures teaches futures methods on the scale of an individual life, a scale that anyone can learn, understand and use effectively. You can try this at home!
Once learned, the knowledge of these methods and how they work is scalable to any size operation. This is not to suggest that individuals who read a book or attend a workshop are qualified to lead a corporate strategic planning team, but they should be much better prepared to converse, understand and participate in the process at any level. That understanding is valuable, anywhere in an organization, to the development and implementation of a strategic plan.
Beyond scenarios, strategies and plans, Personal Futures teaches individuals the concepts of long term thinking or long term perspective. Kouzes and Posner state that their research found that long term perspective was second only to honesty in traits critical to leadership.
That raises the question, “How does one learn long term perspective?” As a researcher and writer about Personal Futures, I may have a bias, but how else? Personal Futures.
Some people seem to be born with that skill, the ability to think and understand how things may work out in the years ahead. Most of us aren’t.
About a year and a half ago, Jeff Gold (of Leeds Metropolitan University) and I presented a paper on Personal Futures and how those concepts relate to individual career paths to members of AHRD. We were surprised when several participants came to us and suggested that Personal Futures was a tool they could use in Executive Learning. Leadership. Long term perspective.
If a long term perspective might be valuable to you, take a look at the Personal Futures Workbook at www.PersonalFutures.net. It’s on the “Downloads” page and is FREE. No strings attached.
Friday, June 12, 2009
A word for a pet project
The Futures Student Recognition project, conducted by the Association of Professional Futurists, is starting its second year. This project has consumed a lot of my time so I've missed a few blogs here but I'll be catching up.
The Student Recognition project for students of Foresight and Futures Studies is an attempt by the Association of Professional Futurists to recognize some of the very fine work that is being done by graduate students in futures studies around the world.
We started late in 2008, but still got a number of good papers. Some of the schools we invited didn't contribute papers in 2008, but promised to have entries for the 2009 project. We only invited 11 of the best known universities with graduate degrees in Studies of the Future last year, partly because the program was so new and we were going to have to work out all the kinks. Actually, everything went smoothly. The judges were excellent, reading through all the papers, adding insightful comments, yet coming up with very similar decisions on each of the papers.
So the awards have been announced and awarded and certificates have gone out to all the 2008 winners. Now we are sending out invitations for 2009. We'll double the number of schools, trying not to grow too fast, but still trying to be inclusive and give all the schools with substantial graduate programs in Foresight and Future Studies an opportunity to participate. Here's a list of schools that have been invited for 2009:
ARGENTINA
Universidad Nacional de La Plata
AUSTRALIA
Swinburne University of Technology
AUSTRALIA
Curtin University of Technology
AUSTRALIA
University of the Sunshine Coast
COLOMBIA
University Externado de Colombia
FINLAND
Turku School of Economics and Finland Future Academy
FRANCE
Conservetoire National des Arts et Metiers
HUNGARY
Corvinus University of Budapest
ITALY
Pontifical Gregorian University
MEXICO
Monterrey Institute of Technology
PAKISTAN
Pakistan Futuristics Foundation and Institute
PORTUGAL
Technical University of Lisbon
ROMANIA
Babes Bolyai University
RUSSIA
Moscow State University
SOUTH AFRICA
University of Stellenbosch
TAIWAN
Fo Guang University
TAIWAN
Tamkang University
UNITED KINGDOM
University of Manchester
UNITED STATES
Regent University
UNITED STATES
University of Hawaii
UNITED STATES
University of Houston
Putting together an international list of universities with futures programs is a little more challenging than one might think at first. We've been guided by two excellent lists, one by José Ramos, the other by John Smart. Both put a lot of research into their lists.
We are already working on a list of schools to add in 2010.
I keep saying "we." Jim Mathews, a futurist in Salt Lake City, and I are co-chairman for the Student Recognition project this year. The APF Board of Directors has been very closely involved with us in this project from the start, offering support and suggestions and generous awards. They have also been very generous with their praise for the success of the 2008 project, as have many of the participating universities.
We are already receiving entries for 2009!
Comments and suggestions are welcome!
The Student Recognition project for students of Foresight and Futures Studies is an attempt by the Association of Professional Futurists to recognize some of the very fine work that is being done by graduate students in futures studies around the world.
We started late in 2008, but still got a number of good papers. Some of the schools we invited didn't contribute papers in 2008, but promised to have entries for the 2009 project. We only invited 11 of the best known universities with graduate degrees in Studies of the Future last year, partly because the program was so new and we were going to have to work out all the kinks. Actually, everything went smoothly. The judges were excellent, reading through all the papers, adding insightful comments, yet coming up with very similar decisions on each of the papers.
So the awards have been announced and awarded and certificates have gone out to all the 2008 winners. Now we are sending out invitations for 2009. We'll double the number of schools, trying not to grow too fast, but still trying to be inclusive and give all the schools with substantial graduate programs in Foresight and Future Studies an opportunity to participate. Here's a list of schools that have been invited for 2009:
ARGENTINA
Universidad Nacional de La Plata
AUSTRALIA
Swinburne University of Technology
AUSTRALIA
Curtin University of Technology
AUSTRALIA
University of the Sunshine Coast
COLOMBIA
University Externado de Colombia
FINLAND
Turku School of Economics and Finland Future Academy
FRANCE
Conservetoire National des Arts et Metiers
HUNGARY
Corvinus University of Budapest
ITALY
Pontifical Gregorian University
MEXICO
Monterrey Institute of Technology
PAKISTAN
Pakistan Futuristics Foundation and Institute
PORTUGAL
Technical University of Lisbon
ROMANIA
Babes Bolyai University
RUSSIA
Moscow State University
SOUTH AFRICA
University of Stellenbosch
TAIWAN
Fo Guang University
TAIWAN
Tamkang University
UNITED KINGDOM
University of Manchester
UNITED STATES
Regent University
UNITED STATES
University of Hawaii
UNITED STATES
University of Houston
Putting together an international list of universities with futures programs is a little more challenging than one might think at first. We've been guided by two excellent lists, one by José Ramos, the other by John Smart. Both put a lot of research into their lists.
We are already working on a list of schools to add in 2010.
I keep saying "we." Jim Mathews, a futurist in Salt Lake City, and I are co-chairman for the Student Recognition project this year. The APF Board of Directors has been very closely involved with us in this project from the start, offering support and suggestions and generous awards. They have also been very generous with their praise for the success of the 2008 project, as have many of the participating universities.
We are already receiving entries for 2009!
Comments and suggestions are welcome!
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Future Savvy
I don’t usually discuss or review books in this space, so this is an exception. I’ve just read Future Savvy by Adam Gordon (a fellow member of the Association of Professional Futurists), and I think it’s worth sharing.
The premise of the book is that each of us is subjected to a lot of advice about the future, whether in the media, in our careers, newsletter, blogs, etc. Gordon’s point is that you need to understand how to separate the good information from the bad. How to recognize bias and spin.
Gordon lumps nearly all information about trends, forecasts, predictions, market research, and other forward looking information under the term “forecast.” I found that a little jarring at first, but got used to it. He needed a collective term, and that works. He then divides forecasts into two types, “future-aligning” forecasts which help people or organizations prepare for or deal with the future and “future-influencing” forecasts that seek to influence opinions or events in order to change the future in their preferred direction.
Gordon then lays out what I felt was a good mini-course in statistics and surveys, but without numbers or formulas. Just basic ‘how this works’ stuff. Easy to read and understand, while offering the tools for critical analysis of forecasts. He follows that with a chapter on how to recognize bias, both natural and intentional, then asks you to consider your own biases and assumptions.
From that background in critical analysis of forecasts, Gordon moves on to explaining some of the methods used in creating forecasts, including how to use the methods and describing their strengths and weaknesses. This includes a chapter on systems perspective and a chapter on scenarios that is subtitled “How it’s better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong.”
The final chapters of the book offer several specific examples of forecasts (including their web addresses) followed by Gordon’s analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of each forecast. He then closes with a list of questions the reader should ask (and why) about any forecast.
This book will change the way most readers look at forecasts, projections and surveys, to their benefit.
Although this book is aimed at business readers, I believe Gordon offers advice that anyone can use. We all make decisions about the future every day and we read or hear information about the future constantly. Future Savvy offers some good advice on how to filter that information and how to make better decisions about the future.
The premise of the book is that each of us is subjected to a lot of advice about the future, whether in the media, in our careers, newsletter, blogs, etc. Gordon’s point is that you need to understand how to separate the good information from the bad. How to recognize bias and spin.
Gordon lumps nearly all information about trends, forecasts, predictions, market research, and other forward looking information under the term “forecast.” I found that a little jarring at first, but got used to it. He needed a collective term, and that works. He then divides forecasts into two types, “future-aligning” forecasts which help people or organizations prepare for or deal with the future and “future-influencing” forecasts that seek to influence opinions or events in order to change the future in their preferred direction.
Gordon then lays out what I felt was a good mini-course in statistics and surveys, but without numbers or formulas. Just basic ‘how this works’ stuff. Easy to read and understand, while offering the tools for critical analysis of forecasts. He follows that with a chapter on how to recognize bias, both natural and intentional, then asks you to consider your own biases and assumptions.
From that background in critical analysis of forecasts, Gordon moves on to explaining some of the methods used in creating forecasts, including how to use the methods and describing their strengths and weaknesses. This includes a chapter on systems perspective and a chapter on scenarios that is subtitled “How it’s better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong.”
The final chapters of the book offer several specific examples of forecasts (including their web addresses) followed by Gordon’s analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of each forecast. He then closes with a list of questions the reader should ask (and why) about any forecast.
This book will change the way most readers look at forecasts, projections and surveys, to their benefit.
Although this book is aimed at business readers, I believe Gordon offers advice that anyone can use. We all make decisions about the future every day and we read or hear information about the future constantly. Future Savvy offers some good advice on how to filter that information and how to make better decisions about the future.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Personal Wild Cards
What is a wild card? Futurists describe a wild card event as a low probability, high impact event. Very unlikely to happen, but if it does you won’t forget it soon. Winning the lottery, becoming a parent of quadruplets, being caught up in a war or a natural disaster, or an unexpected inheritance all qualify as personal wild card events.
And why should you be interested in wild cards if they are not likely to happen? Well, actually, I should have said “low probability.”
And why do I bring up wild cards?
This is hurricane season in Texas. For years, I’ve had hurricanes on our wild card list, and we have a contingency plan. This year, we got a direct hit from Hurricane Dolly. Our children and grandchildren in Houston were hit by Hurricane Ike.
The point here is that wild cards do happen.
So when you are thinking about your future, you should try to consider/anticipate your potential wildcards. Here are a few thoughts that have been helpful to me.
1- Which wild cards are plausible or even possible? You only have to put multiple births on your list if there is going to be a pregnancy. If you don’t live near a coastline, you shouldn’t have to consider hurricanes, although you may have other natural forces to think about. If you don’t buy lottery tickets, you know you won’t win the lottery. So you can eliminate a lot of possibilities because they are not only unlikely but nearly impossible.
2- Look in each of your personal domains, the areas of your life where there are forces that bring about events. (Activities, Finances, Health, Housing, Social, Transportation). Ask yourself, “What are the potential wildcards for this domain?” As I mentioned, hurricanes are one of my wild cards, so I’ll keep that example as we go on here.
3- Once you’ve identified some wild cards, think about some “If…then…” strategies. (If this event happens, then my strategy will be…”) Back to hurricanes. Personally, we have contingency plans for hurricanes. First, we carry insurance on our home and belongings. A high deductible keeps premiums low. Second, when we see that a hurricane may hit our area, we protect our home by covering the windows with plywood and bringing outdoor potted plants, hanging stuff, and furniture inside so it can’t crash into something. Third, we pack the car and leave town to spend a few days with family not likely to be impacted by the storm. Fourth, we also have some backup in case we can’t get out of town. Emergency supplies and equipment, so we have food, light, radio, etc. When Dolly arrived, she was a late bloomer. The forecast was for a tropical storm and we got a category II (just barely) hurricane. So we went to our backup plan.
So there are some of the practical steps for dealing with wild cards:
a- Identify possible wild card events in your future.
b- Make contingency plans—If…then…
c- Execute the plan if the wild card event occurs.
Now let’s go back to “high impact events.” Psychologists have conducted research to determine which events in our lives have the greatest impacts on our lives. One study, published in 1967 by Holmes and Rahe established The Social Readjustment Rating Scale. If you Google “Social Readjustment Rating Scale,” you’ll find several entries that include the list with the rankings for each event. Miller and Rahe followed that study in 1997 with an updated version.
The life event ranked highest for impact is “death of a spouse.” If you are young, or even middle aged, this is probably a wild card. If you are in your 80s or your spouse is in bad health (or a very reckless driver), then the event may be more plausible with a greater need for a contingency plan.
Other high impact events on the Holmes-Rahe scale include divorce or separation, jail or incarceration, death of a family member, and major illness or injury. Marriage is at the exact center of the scale.
Now, back to hurricanes. Low probability, high impact events.
A lot of people in Texas had contingency plans for a hurricane. They secured their homes, had emergency supplies and equipment (lots of people in Texas own gas powered generators), and evacuated to higher ground.
A whole lot of people had no plan. Some couldn’t evacuate because they didn’t have transportation, didn’t have anywhere to go (or any money for gas, food, hotel, etc.) or were trapped by early flooding. Some wouldn’t evacuate from high risk areas. Fear of looters, couldn’t afford to travel or had a macho “bring it on!” attitude, or maybe a death wish. Many of those people just did not understand the risks. Maybe they didn’t understand “storm surge” which temporarily raises the level of the ocean and any adjacent bays or waterways.
The lesson here is that when you think about high impact events, it can be helpful to do scenarios, even mini-scenarios: What’s the worst case? What’s the best? A futures wheel can be helpful as well to help you explore the impacts of events. I’ve developed a Personal Futures Wheel that reminds you to explore impacts of events on all six of your personal domains. You can download an example (free) at www.personalfutures.net.
And why should you be interested in wild cards if they are not likely to happen? Well, actually, I should have said “low probability.”
And why do I bring up wild cards?
This is hurricane season in Texas. For years, I’ve had hurricanes on our wild card list, and we have a contingency plan. This year, we got a direct hit from Hurricane Dolly. Our children and grandchildren in Houston were hit by Hurricane Ike.
The point here is that wild cards do happen.
So when you are thinking about your future, you should try to consider/anticipate your potential wildcards. Here are a few thoughts that have been helpful to me.
1- Which wild cards are plausible or even possible? You only have to put multiple births on your list if there is going to be a pregnancy. If you don’t live near a coastline, you shouldn’t have to consider hurricanes, although you may have other natural forces to think about. If you don’t buy lottery tickets, you know you won’t win the lottery. So you can eliminate a lot of possibilities because they are not only unlikely but nearly impossible.
2- Look in each of your personal domains, the areas of your life where there are forces that bring about events. (Activities, Finances, Health, Housing, Social, Transportation). Ask yourself, “What are the potential wildcards for this domain?” As I mentioned, hurricanes are one of my wild cards, so I’ll keep that example as we go on here.
3- Once you’ve identified some wild cards, think about some “If…then…” strategies. (If this event happens, then my strategy will be…”) Back to hurricanes. Personally, we have contingency plans for hurricanes. First, we carry insurance on our home and belongings. A high deductible keeps premiums low. Second, when we see that a hurricane may hit our area, we protect our home by covering the windows with plywood and bringing outdoor potted plants, hanging stuff, and furniture inside so it can’t crash into something. Third, we pack the car and leave town to spend a few days with family not likely to be impacted by the storm. Fourth, we also have some backup in case we can’t get out of town. Emergency supplies and equipment, so we have food, light, radio, etc. When Dolly arrived, she was a late bloomer. The forecast was for a tropical storm and we got a category II (just barely) hurricane. So we went to our backup plan.
So there are some of the practical steps for dealing with wild cards:
a- Identify possible wild card events in your future.
b- Make contingency plans—If…then…
c- Execute the plan if the wild card event occurs.
Now let’s go back to “high impact events.” Psychologists have conducted research to determine which events in our lives have the greatest impacts on our lives. One study, published in 1967 by Holmes and Rahe established The Social Readjustment Rating Scale. If you Google “Social Readjustment Rating Scale,” you’ll find several entries that include the list with the rankings for each event. Miller and Rahe followed that study in 1997 with an updated version.
The life event ranked highest for impact is “death of a spouse.” If you are young, or even middle aged, this is probably a wild card. If you are in your 80s or your spouse is in bad health (or a very reckless driver), then the event may be more plausible with a greater need for a contingency plan.
Other high impact events on the Holmes-Rahe scale include divorce or separation, jail or incarceration, death of a family member, and major illness or injury. Marriage is at the exact center of the scale.
Now, back to hurricanes. Low probability, high impact events.
A lot of people in Texas had contingency plans for a hurricane. They secured their homes, had emergency supplies and equipment (lots of people in Texas own gas powered generators), and evacuated to higher ground.
A whole lot of people had no plan. Some couldn’t evacuate because they didn’t have transportation, didn’t have anywhere to go (or any money for gas, food, hotel, etc.) or were trapped by early flooding. Some wouldn’t evacuate from high risk areas. Fear of looters, couldn’t afford to travel or had a macho “bring it on!” attitude, or maybe a death wish. Many of those people just did not understand the risks. Maybe they didn’t understand “storm surge” which temporarily raises the level of the ocean and any adjacent bays or waterways.
The lesson here is that when you think about high impact events, it can be helpful to do scenarios, even mini-scenarios: What’s the worst case? What’s the best? A futures wheel can be helpful as well to help you explore the impacts of events. I’ve developed a Personal Futures Wheel that reminds you to explore impacts of events on all six of your personal domains. You can download an example (free) at www.personalfutures.net.
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