Personal Futures—What?

Personal Futures is simply a system for applying futures (or futurist’s) methods to individual lives. These methods have been used (quite successfully) by corporations and governments around the world for decades. It’s just a matter of scale. And simplicity.

But scaling down was a challenge. Not so much for the futures methods, they scale easily. The problem was the research. The basic information about each individual’s life. Where does an individual start? What are the driving forces? What are plausible and probable events in one person’s future?

In building a systematic approach to personal futures, I suggest three steps:
1-Understanding your life (research).
2-Exploring alternate futures (personal scenario s).
3- Creating a vision, strategies and plans for the future (personal strategic planning).

Which brings us back to that first step, personal research. What can you expect in your future? What are the patterns? What are the universals?

One “universal” is biology, the human life cycle, which breaks down into stages. Life stages were identified centuries ago and can be found in the writings of the ancient Greeks. Psychologists today still recognize life stages. For an individual, each life stage can represent a planning period, and each change of stages represents change in the individual’s life. If one understands or has mental images of the future stages of life, they provide a frame upon which planning can begin.

Another universal lies in six personal domains. Each domain represents a category of forces that exist in every person’s life from birth to death. Recognizing these domains and the forces within them is an important part of understanding your future, because these are the forces that bring about change in your life. The six personal domains include:
Activities- the things we do, including education, career, sports, religion, hobbies, etc.
Finances- everything to do with money, assets, liabilities, and risk.
Health- your health, both physical and mental and any care or medications you receive.
Housing- your home, community, country, climate. All about where you live.
Social- family, friends, neighbors, co-workers. All the people in your life.
Transportation- relates to all modes and aspects of transportation including walking
and distance.

Generally, during any life stage, forces from at least two domains will be dominant during that stage. So, understanding the domains and the forces can help you understand how changes in the forces can produce changes in your life. By projecting how each of the domains, and particularly the dominant domains might behave in the future, it is possible to anticipate changes in your future. For example, if you think of your career as a force of change, how will your career change over the next ten years? How will those changes impact your life?

When something specific happens in your life, we call it an event. Each event in life is part of one of your six domains. Also, each event will occur during one of your life stages. During your lifetime many events occur, and they have two common characteristics that make them of interest to your future:
Probability
Impact

Although some events are highly probable in your life, many have very little impact on your life. Birthdays for example. Very predictable, but not much impact. As you think about the future, your greatest consideration should be for those events that have both high probability and high impact. These are the events for which you will want to create strategies and plans for your future. These are events that you will have in your personal scenarios and your strategic plan.
Another factor to consider in your personal life is your values. What’s important in your life? Family? Ethics? Career? Money? Power? Which is most important of all? What’s next?
Why values? Because your values are your rudder, steering you through your life. If you really understand what your values really are, you’ll be more likely to choose the right value when you’re under pressure. Little things and big things.

These four areas, life stages, personal domains, life events and personal values contain enough information about your life to help you start looking at your future. Preparing for it. Planning for it. Going beyond wishing and starting to work toward the future you want.

There are some worksheets on my web site that will help you with all this: http://www.personalfutures.net/. Or, you can download a free copy of the Personal Futures Workbook there that includes all the worksheets and will take you through the entire personal futuring process.

Using a workbook

When I was doing the research for my dissertation, the intended outcome was simply a system that would allow individuals to apply futures methods to their personal lives. A byproduct of that process was a 20 page workbook that consisted mostly of worksheets.

After I completed the dissertation and the defense, I expanded the workbook, adding some explanation to go along with the worksheets. With that workbook, I conducted some workshops.
In each workshop, I learned something from my students and soon the workbook included more explanation and lots of examples. Eventually it was over 90 pages. Then I added a CD of narrated PowerPoint slides---a workshop in a package.

But printing, distribution costs and shipping all made it a pretty expensive package in my mind, so when I was asked to speak to a group of Engineers in Austin, Texas early in February, I asked if they'd like to try a new approach. I'd send them the Personal Futures Workbook in digital format and they could come to the short (90 minute) workshop with their notebook computers or a printed copy. They liked the idea, so we agreed.

The execution was a bit more complicated than the idea! I had known that there was software available to create and fill out forms, so I was confident I could create the workbook in one of those. Well, yes and no. All the software programs had one or more shortcomings. Many would allow me to create a form that people could fill out. But for some reason, they could not save the completed form on their computer. Except in the new version of Adobe Acrobat

Frankly I had avoided Acrobat for two reasons. It was expensive and I had purchased Adobe software before. I had used that software to write a book, which was such a painful experience that I've never used it since. But I put that behind me and purchased the Acrobat software, figuring I'd get through the experience somehow. Then, surprise! Adobe gave me acess to about 12 hours of tutorial videos. Wow! That made the difference.

I slimmed the workbook down to just over 50 pages, created forms fields with my new Acrobat software, had several futurist friends try it out and tweaked it some more. Then I sent it to the engineers in Austin.

Two weeks later I went to Austin for the meeting. I was told that their organization had never had so many people show up at a meeting. I spoke to them about Personal Futures and how to use the workbook. I answered questions from time to time as we went along, and at the end had a lot of questions. GOOD questions. A good experience.

So now the Personal Futures Workbook is available on my web site, free. It includes a Creative Commons license that permits copying and sharing. Teachers can freely give copies to their students. You can send them to friends, grandkids or anyone else.
You can download it free at http://www.personalfutures.net/.

One more feature. All copies carry permission to make comments via Adobe Reader about any portion of the workbook. Anyone can make suggestions, comments, criticisms about anything in the workbook and send their comments to me by email. Hopefully, this workbook will just get better.

Beta test the future

For the past few weeks, I’ve been going through the Personal Futures Workbook, trying to review and re-think everything in it. I’m slimming it down, trying to make everything clear and simple, yet retaining the stuff that works. Ultimately, this will be the electronic version. Save it in your computer, make a copy and start typing, filling in and planning your future.

What got me moving in this direction was an invitation to speak to a group of technology managers in Austin in February. They had seen an article on personal futuring that I had written for The Futurist a year and a half ago. I decided to turn the talk into a mini-workshop. The electronic version of the workbook will be posted on the group’s web site and they will be asked to either print out a copy or load it into a notebook and bring it to the meeting. Then we’ll go through the steps of how to fill out and use the workbook.

In the past, when I’ve spoken to groups, I’ve handed out a miniature version of the workbook. It was enough to give an idea of what the workbook was about, but not anything you could really use to plan your future. Of course, you could go to my web site and order the workbook, but… even doing everything myself, printing costs and postage costs made the workbooks expensive. Especially overseas. Although I was selling workbooks, I decided that was not what I was really after. And I had to stop and think about that. What am I after here? What do I want to accomplish with my concepts about applying futurist methods to personal lives?

The answer is distribution. As widely as possible. I really believe that long-term thinking and planning can change people’s lives. I have been told by people who attended my workshops that their lives had been changed, but I’m not likely to talk to enough people, conduct enough workshops or sell enough workbooks to make much of a difference.
So, the decision to go to an electronic version that can be shared, emailed, copied, translated.

Free.

But first, I need some help. Beta testers. You?

I’d like help to test the electronic workbook in every sense. Does it really work? Can individuals successfully plan for the future? Does it work mechanically…easy to copy, easy to use, fill in the blanks and save. Does it work with your computer operating system and software?

Would you like to be a Beta tester for the future? If so, send me an email with “Beta” on the subject line. I will not share your email address with anyone, but I will send you a “Beta” copy of the Personal Futures Workbook. And I’ll ask for your opinions.

I’ll hope to hear from you.

Basics: What futurists believe

Obviously, I can’t speak for all futurists, but the futurists I know share some common beliefs about the future. Understanding these beliefs may be helpful as you think about your own future. One scholar/futurist, Dr. Wendell Bell, has summarized these core beliefs in a list of twelve assumptions that futurists make when they consider the future. Bell’s two-volume, Foundations of Future Studies (1997) is a classic among futurists.

I’m not going to go into all twelve of Bell’s assumptions, but I will discuss three beliefs that I think are at the core of futurist belief and most important to individuals.

The first is that the future is not predetermined.
Bell and other futurists add the qualifier “totally” as in “not totally predetermined.” OK. But the important point here is that if the future is not totally pre-determined, there is more than one possible future. There are alternative futures. There may be good futures, bad futures, unimagined futures… but there is more than one future. This concept of alternative futures leads us to scenarios. The scenario methods (there are at least a dozen variations) are all based on the concept of alternate futures.

Which brings up the next belief, some futures are better than others.
Some futures may be really good and others may be really bad. Do we have choices? If you could choose your future, you would probably choose the future that is best for you. Futurists call this the “preferred” future. By itself, this belief seems small, obvious, not really too important. But, when combined with the third belief, preferred futures take on considerable importance.

The third core belief is that actions we take in the present can influence the future. Notice that statement says “can” not “will.” No promises! This is why strategic plans contain an action plan. Exploring the future does not change anything. Exploring the future, with scenarios for example, only tells you what may be or could be. Developing strategies and making plans does not change the future. Not until actions are taken can change begin.

Contingency plans do not change the future. They provide strategies for dealing with the future when it arrives. And this is one of the key faults or weaknesses of strategic planning. The future does not begin to take direction or change until action is taken.

That simple.

To achieve a preferred future, or your vision of the future, you must take action. You can make great plans and develop excellent strategies, but until you act on either your plans or your strategies, they are simply wishes for the future.

In my first personal strategic plan, about ten years ago, I determined that I wanted to write. Be published. I had known all my life that I liked to write and wanted to write, but I hadn’t. I put writing in my plan and started taking action. I’m writing now. I’ve been published, even paid for writing. That will continue to be a part of my future. But it wasn’t until I made the decision to act, and write.

Futures methods work.
You can make decisions about your future, now.
You can act on those decisions.
That is how you make your future.

The Future is about change

The reason we are interested in the future is because we know that things will be different. We want to know what will change.

In our lives, there are several things that bring about change. The dominant force of change is simply getting older. Every day. As we get older, we change. Think about the differences from childhood to adolescence. Profound change. Lots of physical growth; upward, filling out. Hormonal and emotional change. And changes related to becoming independent.
The changes brought about by maturing and aging may seem most obvious during adolescence, but there are other times of life, such as menopause and very late in life, that the physical changes are also important. There is a pattern of life stages and normal change that has been understood since the time of Hippocrates, and understanding these stages and patterns can provide considerable insight into changes that you can anticipate in your future.
But there are other forces in our lives that are also changing throughout life. One of the most obvious forces of change is simply the things we do. As children it’s our games, our learning. Then we start school and begin formal learning. The games change to sports and organized activities. And the learning becomes more detailed and complex, then suddenly formal learning is over and careers start.

There are also social and cultural patterns in our lives. These can vary from one country to another, between religions and between political systems. Migration from one social system to another can result in enormous changes in any person’s life. There are also differences between families. One family may have a culture of love, communication, gentleness, understanding, while another family may have a culture of confrontation, argument, distrust or other characteristics. These differences become apparent when two people with different family cultures marry, because some change is inevitable.

Many changes in our lives involve our own decisions. These are changes that we make ourselves rather than those changes that are pushed on us by outside forces. Some of these decisions change the direction of our lives. Choosing a career, deciding to marry, deciding to have children or deciding to divorce are all decisions that change the direction of our lives. These are sometimes referred to as “turning point” events.

What makes a change event important in your life? Two characteristics that you should consider are impact and probability. How likely is an event to happen? If an event happens in your life, what will be the impact upon your life?

Futurists use probability and impact as key criteria when planning for future events. Events that are both highly probable and carry a high impact are the events that should be planned for. Strategic planning in large organizations is generally based on high impact, high probability events. These concepts carry over well into our personal lives, so we should plan first for those events that have high probability of occurring and will carry a high impact when they do occur.

Like what?

Let’s start with retirement. That’s an event that Boomers are starting to think about. There’s lots of advice in the media about how to save for retirement, so most people are aware of financial planning for retirement. But when you actually stop working, what will you do? Travel? Play golf? Watch TV?

You’ll probably be retired for at least twenty years, so you what activities will keep you interested over two or more decades? What will be your role in your family and your community? Where you will live? Downsize and stay in the same area? Move to the tropics?

And what about your health? What will you do to maintain or improve your health?

Those are just a few thoughts for one high probability, high impact event in life. But I think that’s enough to get you thinking about events that are likely to occur in your life in the near future.

What is a “Vision” and why is it important?

Futurists frequently talk about or refer to “Visions of the future.” But sometimes we (futurists) assume that everyone understands what we mean ...but they don’t. The question I hear most frequently from audiences is “How do I create a vision?” And they want a step by step answer. So here’s how.

First, what is a vision of the future? This is important, because a vision of your personal future is the first step in actually planning for your future. A vision of the future is the image in your mind of what the future can or should be like at a given time in the future, say 10 years.
Why is that important? Because that is where you want to go. Your destination. If you don’t have a destination in mind, how will you get there? If you don’t know what you want in life, you’ll have to settle for what you get.

The big question is “How do I create or even decide on a vision of my future?” I suggest you build your vision in small parts. Six parts actually. And you can break down into smaller parts if you want, but start with these six domains or areas of change in your life:

1. Activities. All the things you do. School, career, religion, sports, hobbies, travel, etc.
2. Finances. Everything related money in your life. Income, assets, investments, liabilities, debt, risks, insurance, etc.
3. Health. Everything related to your physical and mental health and care. Your present health status, personal hygiene, medications, diet, exercise, medical and dental care, etc.
4. Housing. Everything related to your home and where you live. House, apartment, hut, community, region, climate, etc.
5. Social. Everything to do with people. Your family, friends, co-workers, neighbors, community, advisors, organizations, etc.
6. Transportation. All your modes of transportation, starting with walking. Personal and public transport, local and long distance.

Now look at one of these domains in your life and ask yourself two questions:

1-What is my status in this domain now? Or… What is the quality of my life in this domain?

2-Where do I want my life in this domain to be in ten years?

Consider each of these six domains and make decisions about what you want your life to be like in ten years. Do your choices in each domain work together with choices in other domains or is there conflict? Once you resolve any conflicts, you will have a good of what you want in your future. All that remains is to bring your six decisions about the future together to build one complete image, or vision, of the future you want ten years in the future.
Not terribly complex, is it? You’ll find a little more detail on my web site, http://www.personalfutures.net/.

But there is one more important point about visions. This is your vision, so you can change it at any time. You are not locked in. It’s like taking a trip. You can pick a destination, but you can change your mind, even after you’ve started on your journey. In both cases, whatever seemed important at one time can change, so you can change your destination, or your vision. As well as your future.

Long term thinking

I strongly believe in futures methods, the methods futurists use. More, I believe these methods can help individuals acquire the ability to think long term. I also believe that long term thinkers take responsibility—in their lives and in their careers. They also make good leaders.
Last Spring, Jeff Gold (Lecturer at Leeds Metropolitan University School of Business and Law) and I presented a paper on Personal Futures at the AHRD (Academy of Human Resources Development) convention in Indianapolis. Our approach dealt with using Personal Futures concepts in helping employees develop career paths. We were surprised. Very.
After our presentation, we were each approached at different times by individuals who liked our concepts, but thought we should direct our approach toward executive education and development. Teaching long term thinking and long-term perspectives to people who would become leaders in different areas of their organizations. This caught both of us by surprise.
But it makes sense. The ability to think many years ahead is an important leadership skill. Much like chess. Leaders and chess players need to know where they are going and what moves they must make to get them there.
Of course the same applies in our personal lives. And our children’s lives. Looking ahead. Planning the moves that we must make to take us to our vision of the future.
And there is a word that futurists use a lot…Vision. Organizations spend a lot of time thinking about their vision of the future. Executives attend multi-day seminars or workshops on how to develop-create-design a vision of their organization’s future. As individuals, we can also benefit from a little time thinking about our future. Developing a vision.
And it’s not hard. The next addition to this blog (approximately next week) will be about creating a vision of your future. A vision of where you want your life to be ten years from now. In detail..